Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-15T00:06:55

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is forecast to remain at mainly background levels. However, it may continue to temporarily reach moderate levels during diurnal peaks, more particularly if there is any connection with a high speed stream originating from CH37/+.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period. This is confirmed by Met Office REFM output, the 27-day recurrence and the Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast Model, all pointing towards little overall change and a continuation of very low values.