MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-22T00:05:20
The high energy electron flux has been at predominantly background levels over the past few days, but a slight rising trend is possible if the small and weak negative coronal hole 40 in the southwest becomes geoeffective. However, even if this does occur, values are unlikely to reach the High (1000 pfu) threshold.
Corresponding 24 hour fluence values may increase later, but are expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as indicated by latest MOSWOC REFM data.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-22T00:05:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |