MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-08T00:28:40
High energy electron flux levels are expected to oscillate between background and moderate levels through days 1 and 2, maybe just exceeding the high (1e3pfu) threshold on diurnal peaks on day 2. A more sustained increase is possible from late on day 3 in response to any significant input from the high speed stream of coronal hole 26.
Corresponding electron fluence values are well below the Active threshold and although these are likely to increase during day 3, are not expected to reach the 1e8 integrated pfu level.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-08T00:28:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |