Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-09T00:11:04

The high-energy (greater than 2MeV) electron forecast is lower confidence than normal, with persistence methods not favoured for reasons discussed in the geomagnetic section, and hence REFM and other models are less useful. Increases in flux rely on connection with high speed streams from CH20 or CH21 on day 2 (10th), with strengths uncertain at this stage.

Flux levels may exceed the 1000 pfu high threshold near the diurnal maximum from day 2, but it remains unlikely that Integrated electron fluence levels will exceed the 1e8 warning threshold through this forecast period.