Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-01T00:04:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 in the outer Van Allen belt, is currently at moderate levels following the recent rise in solar wind speeds. This is expected to continue through the forecast period, with an increasing chance that the flux will gradually rise above the High (1000 pfu) threshold during its diurnal peak. Therefore, the 24-hour integrated electron fluence is expected to show an increasing trend throughout the period.

However confidence is low. Electron counts are currently below expectations and the REFM is suggesting a low, tedious increase. Equally, the 27-day recurrence shows that levels were below Active on the previous rotation, albeit with a different and arguably slower solar wind regime on that occasion. This seems to indicate that fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 pfu) threshold.