Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-21T00:14:54

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to remain below the Alert threshold throughout, although may get close to the diurnal maxima. 

Associated 24-hour electron fluence may also show an increasing trend, but is unlikely to reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). Solar winds remained slow-ambient though 20 April and are likely to remain at similar values during this forecast period and this points to little overall change is likely in fluence as well as flux levels. The Met Office REFM forecast is giving a low trend, while the 27-day recurrence was near the Active threshold, it is now running below the previous cycle. The recurrence persistence model keeps forecast at 5 percent or less for Days 1 to 3.