MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-13T00:09:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is forecast to remain at mainly background levels, although it may reach moderate counts on diurnal peaks, particularly on day 3 (15th), should there be any connection with the high speed stream originating from CH37/+.
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period. This is confirmed by the REFM, the 27-day recurrence and the Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast Model, all indicative of very low values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-13T00:09:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |