Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-21T00:01:55

The high energy electron flux has been fluctuating between normal background and moderate levels. Through the forecast there is an increasing chance that the flux will rise close to or above the High threshold, during its diurnal peak, in response to any potential further enhancements in the solar wind. Whilst the 24 hour integrated electron fluence is expected to show an increasing trend, it is expected to remain below the Active threshold. Therefore, the increasing probabilities are more a reflection of low confidence rather than likelihood.