MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-20T00:32:27
The high energy electron flux has been fluctuating between normal background and moderate levels. Through the forecast there is an increasing chance that the flux will rise close to or above the High threshold, during its diurnal peak, in response to enhancements in the solar wind. Therefore, the 24 hour integrated electron fluence is expected to show an increasing trend, but is currently expected to remain below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-03-20T00:32:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |