MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-27T00:24:02
With no sources of significant enhancement forecast in the solar wind over the coming four days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is expected to remain at normal background to moderate levels. Therefore, the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period. This is supported by the REFM forecast and the 27 day recurrence model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-27T00:24:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |