Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-18T00:03:25

The high energy electron flux is expected to remain at mainly background levels through the period, perhaps reaching moderate levels with the diurnal maxima on Days 2 and 3 (19th and 20th). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated fluence), but with a rising trend later in the period. The REFM forecast model and the 27-day recurrence both strongly indicate that levels will remain below the Active threshold, while the recurrence-persistence model shows only a few percent.