MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-17T00:28:59
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain at mainly background levels through the period, perhaps reaching moderate or levels on diurnal maxima, especially later in the period.
Corresponding 24-hour fluence values is expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated fluence), but with a rising trend later in the period, due to the onset of the HSS from coronal hole 39.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-17T00:28:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |