Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-18T00:00:49

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is likely to remain below the High Alert threshold (1000 pfu) for as long as a connection is made with the high speed stream from the southern coronal crown, diurnally fluctuating between Moderate and Normal Background levels. The flux may therefore increase and rise above the High threshold on day 4 (21st), in response to the enhancement in the solar wind. The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to respond with an increasing trend but the likelihood for it to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) seems unlikely, as demonstrated by the REFM and the 27-day recurrence.