MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-18T00:21:08
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) measured at GEO is expected to remain at background to moderate levels, with no significant enhancements likely, even if Earth comes under weak high speed stream influences from negative coronal hole 49.
Corresponding electron fluence values are therefore forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), in line with REFM expectations.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-18T00:21:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |