Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-10T00:08:11

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16, is likely to start at background to moderate levels due to recent elevated solar winds. Later on day 1 (10th) and into day 2 (11th), solar winds are expected to become enhanced again under negative coronal hole influences. Consequently, electron counts are expected to increase by day 3 (12th), perhaps reaching high levels at diurnal peak, although this is low confidence at this stage.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold. Whilst a gradual increasing trend is expected, values are likely to stay below the 1e8 integrated pfu level through this forecast period, albeit with an increased chance of exceeding on day 4 (13th). This outcome is supported by current REFM data.