Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-05T00:27:32

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is currently at background with brief diurnal peaks to Moderate levels. This is expected to continue days 1 and 2 (5th and 6th), with a potential to then become enhanced through day 3 (7th) and into day 4 (8th) due to any enhancement that occurs from the fast wind of the southern crown coronal hole. This could also include some influence from the possible CME arrival on the 7th, although this is very low confidence.

With flux levels rising day 3 and 4, the associated high energy electron fluence is also expected to respond. There is the potential for this to reach Active levels by the end of day 3, with a greater risk of exceeding this threshold during day 4. This increase is supported by both REFM and 27-day persistence. Both of these, however, do bring in the increase too early due to the source region, a northward extension of the southern polar crown coronal hole, remaining further east in comparison to the previous rotation.