Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-27T00:18:40

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux peaked at high levels during the last 24 hours, and has the potential to reach similar levels on day 1 (27th). Through the 28th and 29th, any connection to the fast wind of the southern polar crown coronal hole is then expected to bring a further increase in flux levels, once any initial geomagnetic activity subsides. Any enhancement to flux levels is then likely to persist on day 4 (1st March).

The associated high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8) threshold, as indicated by REFM, but increasing from day 3 (29th) onward. This will give a chance of reaching Active levels by the end of the period, depending upon the strength and timing of any connection the southern polar crown coronal hole that occurs.