MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-28T00:08:14
There are currently no recurrent features on the entire sun that have proved capable of generating Active electron fluence. So, while an increase in solar wind speed and electron flux is possible from day 2 (29th), this is not expected to have any appreciable effect on electron counts in the Van Allen belts.
However, any Earth-directed component to the CME that departed the sun on 25th Jan may result in increased electron flux levels on day 4 (31st).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-28T00:08:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |