Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-15T00:18:38

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux briefly reached High during diurnal peak on 13 Jun, despite the arrival of a weak CME, but was generally Moderate to Background. These flux levels are expected to continue days 1-2 (15-16 Jun) but with a potential rising trend, before gradually easing days 3-4 (17-18 Jun), with the likely connection of the next coronal hole fast winds. 

The 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below Active, albeit with an increasing trend, giving a chance of rising above Active days 1-2 (15-16 Jun). This is supported by REFM for a least day 1 (15 Jun), before this then suggests a further increase later in the period, which is currently not expected.