Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-14T00:13:15

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux briefly reached High during diurnal peak on 13 Jun, despite the arrival of a weak CME, but was generally Moderate to Background. These flux levels are expected to continue days 1-2 (14-15 Jun) but with a potential rising trend, before gradually easing days 3-4 (16-17 Jun), especially if any CME glance is observed on 15 Jun. 

The 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below Active, albeit with an increasing trend, giving a chance of rising above Active day 1-2 (14-15 Jun). This is supported by REFM for a least day 1 (14 Jun), before this then suggests a further increase days 2-3 (15-16 Jun), which is currently not expected.