Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-13T00:15:46

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to persist Background to Moderate, with only a slight chance of briefly peaking High, and potentially dropping out to Background as a consequence of any passing weak and glancing CMEs. While recent fast winds peaked Strong, at over 600km/s, the lack of significant geomagnetic activity, with only a single G1 Minor Storm interval suggests that any charging of the radiation belts was limited. Confidence is limited, however, and there is a slight chance that as solar winds ease and if the CMEs miss, that flux will rise more significantly later in the period. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below Active, albeit with an increasing trend, and a slight chance of rising above Active later in the period. REFM is currently suggesting a more rapid onset of Active fluence, most likely later on day 1 (13 Jun), also in agreement with recurrence. This is considered over-estimated, however, as the previous rotation saw a much stronger fast wind connection, while REFM also is not aware of any of the possible CME glances.