Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-11T23:08:24

The GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux fluctuated between background and moderate levels. Electron fluxes are expected to remain at background to moderate levels initially, with the potential for an increase later in the forecast period due to the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.

However, confidence in this outlook is reduced by the possibility of a glancing CME arrival on 13 June, which could alter the expected electron environment.

The associated electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through days 1–2 (12–13 June), before increasing later in the forecast period. There is a possibility that fluence levels could approach or reach the Active threshold, although confidence is reduced by the potential influence of the glancing CME.

The REFM model continues to provide good guidance and suggests that electron fluence may approach or exceed the Active threshold during days 3–4 (14-15 June), assuming CME effects remain minimal.