Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-21T00:06:02

The high energy electron flux is forecast to remain below the Alert level (1000 pfu), as will the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence. The slightly faster solar wind originating from coronal hole 03 may enhance the electron counts in its wake but it's very unlikely to be sufficient to drive the fluence above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The recurrence-persistence model is giving probabilities of 5 percent or less. Both the REFM forecast and the 27-day recurrence show activity levels remaining well below Active throughout the period.