Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-22T00:07:56

Solar wind speeds are currently around 80 km/s slower than on the sun's previous rotation, and with coronal hole 95 in the southeast significantly smaller this time around, anticipated influences from day 3 (24th) are likely to be weaker. High energy electron flux is expected to rise over the next few days, with the diurnal peak possibly reaching high levels through the diurnal cycle. Corresponding 24-hour fluence will also show a slow increase, but with only a slight chance of reaching the Active threshold from day 2 (23rd) Fluence values did just exceed the threshold on the equivalent to days 2 and 3 of this forecast period on the sun's previous rotation, but current REFM data keeps them below through the next three days, as a result of expected weaker solar winds and lower flux levels.