MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-29T00:03:38
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu Alert level, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence staying well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The recurrence persistence model has probabilities of 2 to 5 percent over Days 1 to 4, but probably overdone on this rotation. The peak 24-hour fluence recorded in the past 24-hours was low at 5.35e6 integrated pfu, while the recurrence was equally low.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-29T00:03:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |