Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-23T00:26:27

High energy electron flux appears to have plateaued following the increase resulting from the previous enhanced solar wind during 18/19 December, with the diurnal cycle peaking at Moderate, with a subsequent day-on-day decrease now most likely.

Coronal hole 95 is due to have an influence in the coming four-day forecast period, however recent 92 has been the most dominant influence on electron populations during the 27-day rotation of the sun - and if these have fallen short of breaching the Active fluence threshold, then it is very likely 95 will 'suffer' a similar fate.

There is a roughly 5% Chance for the 24-hour fluence level to exceed the Active threshold on day three, Wednesday 25 December, although this is more a signpost for a slightly higher risk at this time.