Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-23T00:09:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels, but given the recent wind speeds of 600 km/s or more since the high speed stream become geoeffective from coronal hole 82, the flux but is expected to increase from today onwards to become moderate to high.

With the expected increase in the high energy electron flux, the 24 hour fluence is expected to rapidly rise through today, either exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold late today but more likely through tomorrow. The fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold through the rest of the period. On the last rotation of the coronal hole the fluence became Very Active (exceeding 1e9 integrated pfu), but this is less likely to occur on this rotation due to the slightly lower solar wind speed. However, the probability of exceeding the Very Active threshold does still increase.