Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-16T00:15:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected remain at background to moderate levels for much of the period, with a chance of the flux temporarily exceeding high levels at the peak of the diurnal cycles from tomorrow onwards. The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, albeit with a gradual increasing trend. This is reflected in the REFM forecast model, and in the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly support the fluence remaining below Active through the forecast period.