Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-15T00:11:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, with forecast solar wind speed unlikely to be sufficient to energise the Van Allen belts to above High levels. The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, despite an increasing trend. This is reflected in the REFM forecast model, and in the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly support a below-Active trend. The persistence-recurrence probability model gives very low values, at only 1 to 3 percent over the next four days.