MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-16T00:05:56
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain below the Active level on Days 1 and 2 (16th and 17th), but may rise to near or above the threshold (1000 pfu) on Day 3 (18th), if solar wind speeds pick up on Day 2. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active level throughout, but with the risk levels increasing a little by Day 4 according to climatology. Both the REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence, indicate that forecast values will remain below the Active threshold throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-16T00:05:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |