Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-16T00:05:09

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to diurnally fluctuate between background and
moderate levels for much of the forecast period whilst undergoing a slow decline in peak flux levels. The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain near or just above the Active (1e8) threshold initially, though with a downward trend by day 3 and 4 (18th and 19th). The current level is more or less in line with those recorded during the sun's previous rotation however, due to the recent elevation in the solar wind speed, the REFM output is thought to under-estimate the fluence which may not fall as quickly as shown.