Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-09T00:05:40

The high electron flux is currently varying between Moderate and High values, however solar winds are now falling closer to background suggesting peak values are now likely to decline. Through the next four days, the Earth will remain within a region of the solar wind originating from weak mixed fields on the solar disc, with no notable enhancements to the electron counts expected.

The corresponding electron fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and with only a gradual decay of electron counts, is likely to remain above with a decreasing trend until day 3 or 4 (11th or 12th). This is supported by REFM, with confidence falling by day 3.