Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-09T00:10:50

The high energy electron flux has reduced yesterday compared to previous days, which suggests lower levels are now increasingly likely. However if the solar wind does increase, there is a slight chance this may cause an increase in the electron flux once more. The ongoing reduction in electron fluence is supported by the REFM forecast, although the 27-day recurrence does suggest above-Active levels at this time. However the overall trend is downward and the 24-hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold throughout (1e8 integrated pfu).