Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-02T00:29:20

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been above the high (1e3pfu) threshold for much of the period, with short periods below the threshold due to geomagnetic enhancements. Further spells of high flux are possible through day 1, but in the relatively benign solar wind environment, this is expected to be with a declining trend. The electron flux is then expected to be below the high threshold from late on day 1 onward.

Similarly, the high energy electron fluence is expected to fall below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during day 1, and is then likely to stay below the threshold through the remainder of the forecast period.