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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-01T00:23:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently above the high (1e3 pfu) threshold level and is expected show a decline ranging from Moderate to High for much of the period and by Day 4 (4 Oct) the High level is only likely to be breached for a few hours during the diurnal cycle. During the previous rotation on 3 September 

The related High energy electron fluence values are also likely to exhibit a slow decline and will probably be close to or reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold sometime after Day 3 (3 Oct).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-10-01T00:23:13
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 60%
Day 2 90% 40%
Day 3 90% 30%
Day 4 70% 20%