MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-01T00:23:13
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently above the high (1e3 pfu) threshold level and is expected show a decline ranging from Moderate to High for much of the period and by Day 4 (4 Oct) the High level is only likely to be breached for a few hours during the diurnal cycle. During the previous rotation on 3 September
The related High energy electron fluence values are also likely to exhibit a slow decline and will probably be close to or reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold sometime after Day 3 (3 Oct).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-10-01T00:23:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 60% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 40% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 30% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 20% |