Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-10-31T00:02:58

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron counts remain high but have significantly decreased over the last 24 hours, falling from a peak of 35200 pfu on the 29 to 18800 pfu on the 30. With solar wind speeds expected to gradually decrease and no significant enhancements in sight, the flux levels are expected to show a gradual decline through the forecast period, with an increasing chance of becoming Moderate. The associated electron fluence is therefore expected to gradually decline through the period and is likely to fall below the Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on Day 3 (2 Nov).

The declining trend is supported by REFM, although this does appear to decrease values too quickly. On the previous rotation, a similar response was seen from the large coronal hole that brought this enhancement, with Active fluence levels continuing for a number of days afterwards. A similar pattern can be expected on this occasion, with fluence levels remaining above the Active threshold for a bit longer.