Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-07T00:20:56

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to show an overall decline during the period, but may rise close to the Active level at the diurnal maximum on day 1. The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout, with solar winds likely to be insufficient to drive the electron fluence in the Van Allen belt higher during the period. This is supported by both the REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence, which show a below-threshold trend. Probabilities given from climatology of reaching the Active threshold are between 10 and 15 percent.