MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-06T00:02:56
The diurnal cycle in electron flux today has fallen to moderate levels (below 1000pfu) earlier than yesterday and this pattern has been repeating day after day, resulting in the fluence slowly declining below the Active threshold. With no current sources of enhancement to electron counts within the forecast period, this translates to 24-hour integrated fluence values remaining below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-06T00:02:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |