MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-06T00:33:26
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently maintaining a diurnal variation between normal background and moderate levels. With solar wind pressure expected to remain near background, these levels are expected to persist or perhaps decline further, through the period.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM, which currently provides good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-06T00:33:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |