MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-07T00:05:58
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently maintaining a diurnal variation between normal background and moderate levels. With solar wind pressure expected to remain near background, these levels are expected to persist through the period.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM, which currently provides good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-07T00:05:58 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |