MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-08T00:15:01
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES14 at GEO, has persisted at mainly background levels for the last few days, and is expected to maintain this level through the forecast period. There are no significant sources of enhancement expected in this period, giving high confidence to this forecast.
The associated fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and this is supported by both the 27-day persistence and REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-08T00:15:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |