MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-01T00:22:24
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO is expected to persist at the current diurnal range, remaining below the Alert threshold. This is due to the solar wind pressure expected to remain near background levels.
The associated fluence value is also currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and is expected to remain below throughout. This is supported by REFM, which currently gives good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-01T00:22:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |