MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-30T00:11:03
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO has been below the alert (1000pfu) threshold, and is now expected to continue gradually decaying through the period. Whilst further alerts can't be completely ruled out, values should increasingly fall to background.
The associated fluence value is also currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and is expected to maintain these levels throughout. This is supported by REFM, which currently gives good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-30T00:11:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |