MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-24T00:08:48
High energy electron counts have been gradually rising over recent days and the flux is forecast to become high (over 1e3 pfu) during the diurnal peak from today onwards. Fluence will follow suit and there is the chance it may breach the active threshold late today.
During the previous rotation both the flux and fluence remained at high or very levels for an extended period of time. A lower level of activity is anticipated on this rotation following slightly lower wind speeds, and the fact we're now further away from the autumn equinox so positive coronal holes will have less of an enhanced connection with Earth. On balance it is now deemed likely that fluence levels will rise, but peak at, or just below the active threshold for the next few days, with now almost a negligible chance of levels exceeding the very high fluence threshold (1e9 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-11-24T00:08:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 5% |