Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-11-17T00:00:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to oscillate between background and moderate levels over the next 4 days. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is reflected in the REFM forecast model, and in the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly support the below Active fluence forecast through the four-day period. The probabilities from the recurrence-persistence model are in low single figures throughout. The next increase above the Active threshold is due on Day 5, which is beyond the end of the forecast period.