Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-17T00:06:40

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue its current diurnal oscillation in the Normal Background range on days one and two (Tuesday and Wednesday). The step-wise onset of coronal hole 92 should then result in an increase in flux, to likely breach the High flux threshold (1000pfu) from as early as the end of Wednesday.

The above should result in a peak 'Chance' of Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence by the end of the working week, and perhaps continuing over the weekend.

At present, this remains the main recurrent threat to breaching the Active threshold in the 27-day rotation period of the sun. However, as can be seen from the probabilities, this is a modest risk, and any exceedence of the Active threshold is likely to be slight and brief, before electron populations begin to wane again.