Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-15T12:01:33

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at normal background levels through the period, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence persisting well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

This is reflected in the REFM forecast model and in the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly support the below Active fluence forecast through this period. The arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 92, currently anticipated to occur through day 4, is likely to bring increase flux and ultimately a risk of Active fluence. This, however, is unlikely to occur until at least day 5 (19th) or 6 (20th).