Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-24T00:03:07

High energy electron flux values are expected to rise on day 1 and will possibly reach high levels through their diurnal cycle. However, with coronal hole 95 significantly smaller this time around, influences on the electron counts are likely to be weaker. Corresponding 24-hour fluence is also lower this time around, so much so that any increase is likely to be temporary and start from lower down.

Fluence values did exceed the Active threshold on the previous rotation and although an upward trend is expected during the first three days of this forecast period, REFM data keeps them well below as a result of anticipated weaker solar winds and flux levels. The chances of breaching the Active threshold therefore appear to be very slim.