MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-12-31T00:02:08
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu Alert level, and so the corresponding 24-hour fluence will also stay well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by both the REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence, both of which are forecasting low levels. The recurrence-persistence model is giving probabilities of 1 to 3 percent during the next few days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-12-31T00:02:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |