MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-07T00:02:55
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to be at background to moderate levels initially, although we may start to see an increase to high levels during the diurnal maximum from Day 2 (8 Jan). This is due to the likely increase in solar wind speeds from CH99/-.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is currently well below the Active threshold, and this will increase if the electron flux increases. The chances of breaching the Active threshold are still fairly low, but most likely from Day 2 (8 Jan).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-07T00:02:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |